OVERALL ANALYSIS

Broad Trends General Information Use Trends Library Trends Publishing Trends Government Trends

 

Broad Trends

 

The analysis of broad social, economic, demographic and cultural trends is an extremely diverse subject to be explored, and covers metamorphoses in virtually every sphere of life. This study has concentrated on broad changes in demographics, the workplace, the economy and technology.

 

The demographic study brought some important facts into the limelight. The population of the United States not only is growing. It comprises many new ethnic groups and people that were not born as Americans. This emerging population is an extremely diverse group, consisting of people from all corners of the world with equally distinct lifestyles and cultures. This increasing cultural diversity on such a massive scale should be taken into consideration while making any future business assessments or plans.

 

The workplace is also undergoing a transformation of sorts. Two important trends include telecommuting and outsourcing. At the same time, the United States has moved from a manufacturing to a service-based economy. At work, more generations are mixing in the workforce; workers are not spending their whole lifetimes with one company and have less loyalty toward their employer; and information overload often creates difficulties and frustration.

 

An analysis of broad trends also reveals how tremendously the "technology boom" has hit many parts of the world, including this nation. The increase in the number of Internet and wireless phone users is staggering. The figures indicate that more and more people are opting for wireless communication and want to be "in touch" all the time. Technology tools are also shrinking in size, and nano-technology is the wave of the future.

 

With the boom in the Internet and wireless technology, it is not surprising that some of the biggest changes over the last decade have been observed in the sphere of communication. Letters and face-to-face conversations are being replaced with e-mail and virtual conferences. Instant Messaging is becoming increasingly popular at workplaces that often come equipped with voice, video and file transfer capabilities. Today, with the latest mobile phone in hand, people can access e-mail, browse the Web, listen to music and even watch movies. Another new wave to hit the World Wide Web is blogging, which is becoming the de facto medium of choice for many people to communicate and share their views.

 

U.S. economic trends also reveal distinct pressures on the average person. Reports indicate that U.S. citizens spend a disproportionate amount of their income on housing, a figure that continues to increase. In the year 2005, household budgets have witnessed an exponential rise in fuel prices. Meanwhile, the United States, on a macro scale, is taking on huge debt levels, while countries like the People's Republic of China and India are growing at rapid rates. Such a trend could portend a shift in overall economic power between the world's most powerful nations.

 

A review of many types and sources of information, found in Broad Trends, reveals that the United States is undergoing a massive change in the way it lives, communicates, works and entertains itself. Any estimates or studies for the future cannot ignore these revolutionary changes taking place. -- Michiko Chand

 

General Information Use Trends

Information plays a vital role in contemporary society. Users are becoming more open-minded about the diversity of information resources they consider to be reliable, and do not settle for static Web sites anymore. Moreover, they require information that is customized to their needs, is updated frequently, and often presented in an interactive environment. In other words, they need information that is available to them at the right time, in the right place and in the right form.

 

Modern technology and the now-indispensable Internet are providing variety of new ways of bringing information to users. Innovative tools that provide information access are being released every day, often under the umbrella of “Web 2.0” services, although it is important to note that many are in beta testing and need more refinement. For example, VoIP, a telephony service that works over the Internet and shows great promise, is already being used by 52 percent of businesses despite its glitches (Kharif).

 

Technology equipment and players such as iPods, mobile devices, digital media players and PDAs appeal to many people and are prevalent in many societies worldwide. In fact, much of the communications-related literature highlights the fact that modern technology is entering all spheres of people's lives. A growing amount of audio/video devices for multimedia applications, coupled with the astronomic rise in the popularity of gaming, are radically transforming our society, making it more reliant on computers and the Internet on a daily, even hourly, basis. To keep up with new applications, users learn to use a variety of tools and the information that comes with them in both creative and productive ways in such areas as entertainment, learning, data sharing and the overall information flow.

 

The recent rise of Web 2.0 and continuing popularity of the Internet have had a seminal impact on user information behavior. Compelling statistics show that the Internet, search engines like Google, and Web 2.0 services like blogs, wikis, and RSS, are the primary information sources for most people both at home and at work. For example, a health care worker claims that the Internet with its e-mail, instant messaging and videoconferencing capabilities, has radically changed the way in which he conducts business, and mentions the ability to conduct a paperless and instantaneous doctor-patient relationship (Pew). Such bandwidth-intensive applications have led to another trend, namely users’ growing need for high-speed pipelines to access Internet services even faster. With the much-discussed information overload that has been haunting our society since the Internet’s invention, users do not tolerate slow access to their information resources. At the same time, those people with little or no access to the Internet face a growing “digital divide” between information haves and have-nots.

 

Organizations like the Pew Internet & American Life Project have documented that instant messaging (IM) has been gaining in popularity and is on the verge of catching up with the already popular e-mail trend. Statistically, our society still relies heavily on sending e-mails. Users send 31 billion e-mails daily, a figure that could nearly double to 60 billion e-mails daily in 2006. However, the generation that is just entering the workforce is bringing IM to work. At least 58 percent of knowledge workers use IM at work, and 49 percent are using it to make work-related decisions.

 

Technological infrastructure plays a crucial role in users’ information use patterns of all types. Thus, it is not a surprise that these same technologies, particularly those related to the Internet and Web 2.0, are radically affecting the workplace. Most companies employ multiple tools for modern content and knowledge management purposes. Content management systems, Intranets, contextual workspaces, and institutional knowledge repositories are becoming fundamental business assets that help companies remain competitive.

 

Users, from consumers to businesses, are relying on the Internet more than ever. Web 2.0 has grabbed the current spotlight, and new interactive services that give users more say in the resources they use, as well as the ability to interact on the Internet, are creating a continued groundswell of popularity for the Internet and the Web all around the world. Read more about these trends in General Information Use Trends.--Asiya Sarbasova

 

Library Trends

 

An examination of library literature of all types – scholarly journals, trade magazines, databases, articles, news, conference reports, studies, RSS feeds, blogs and interviews – reveals myriad developments. Public, academic, and special libraries continue to communicate ideas, developments, and findings related to their sector. What is consistent in the literature, however, is the discussion of the Internet and its impact on the library.

 

Studies, like OCLC’s Perceptions of Libraries and Information Resources, have shown beyond a doubt that library patrons are

 

• searching online for information;

• beginning virtually all searches with commercial search engines;

• rarely using library web sites;

• associating libraries almost exclusively with books; and

• expecting free information that is easy and quick to obtain.

 

Well-financed Internet companies are entering realms traditionally served by libraries. Google and Yahoo, the most well-known search engines, are offering new services at an astonishing rate. Both are rapidly digitizing books on a massive scale, unparalleled in the library realm, and plan to make their digital book collections full or partially searchable. Amazon.com has announced its pay-per-page service, and now uses tagging, whereby consumers assign subject terms to resources. Such tagging applications, called “Folksonomies,” represent a populist approach to cataloging. Web 2.0 and new social publishing services are the rage. Wikis, blogs, RSS, photo sharing, and personal profiles are just a few of the most popular applications. Yahoo Answers is a new reference service where users ask and answer each other’s questions online.

 

Such services are or can be expected to siphon more patrons from libraries that don’t make themselves relevant in today’s Web-driven, instant information-access environment. OCLC’s Perceptions reveals that, although people are going to the library, most have not increased or have actually decreased their usage. The Association of Research Libraries documents a decline in university library visits (Kyrillidou and Young). At the same time, college students represent the most active and sophisticated library users (Perceptions 1-4). Public libraries, on the other hand, have shown an upward trend in the number of library visits to their facilities from 1.2 billion in 2001 to 1.3 billion in 2003, the latest year such statistics are available (Chute et al; United States Dept. of Education). In library literature, however, the Internet is largely viewed as a force drawing users away from the library.

 

The library response to the skyrocketing array of new Internet services and applications is variegated. Some articles discuss libraries’ inability to compete with the Internet. A growing body of literature is promoting change. One notable concept, Library 2.0 represents a movement by a vocal group of librarians to promote the use of Web 2.0 services and technologies within the library framework. Another major trend, often written about in the academic library sector, is to recreate the library as a place from a book-oriented collection house to an information commons containing multimedia labs, collaborative work spaces, and entertainment facilities. Innovative online services are being developed to make library web pages, online reference services, and OPACs more modern in their design and capabilities. Pioneering libraries are incorporating blogs, wikis, gaming, IM and other technologies into their repertoire. The profession is beginning to demand more technical skills from new librarians.

 

Documenting, and lamenting, the impact of the Internet is not a new topic in library literature. The cry, however, has been ratcheted up several notches, and the discussion of Web 2.0, in particular, is immense. Many librarians are concerned about the very future of the library as a place and librarianship as a profession. Response to this dilemma runs the gamut. Libraries are changing at a disparate rate. Each type of library –- indeed, each individual library -– must react differently to meet the needs of its unique user base within the confines of its budgetary realities. Read further to find out the size and scope of today’s library infrastructure; the impact of the Internet on libraries; and the attempts by libraries to develop new services that will allow them to evolve or become extinct in Library Trends.----Cindy Boeke

 

Publishing Trends

 

Companies involved in the publishing industry must analyze their core competencies based on rapidly changing market conditions. The changes underway are radical, and any company that is technology-adverse will not succeed. The industry is rapidly transitioning from a print-based to an e-publishing environment, where documents are born, distributed and accessed electronically. Perhaps even harder for publishers to balance is their need to make a profit in a world where users increasingly expect quick and easy access to free information. Often, users bypass or do not seek out information that is fee-based, and rely overwhelmingly on open access sources of information and resources they find on Google.

 

With Google entering the book digitization arena, book publishers are in a complicated situation. On the one hand, the legality of Google's book project is in question due to copyright disputes; at the same time, other Web companies like Yahoo and Amazon.com are digitizing copyright-free materials (Yahoo) or making parts of books, down to the page level, available for a fee. Regardless of the project, publishers must understand how the Internet and Web technologies can benefit their industry and work with Web service providers like search engines to allow their publications to be found in a rapidly growing sea of information.

 

New products and services will be brought to market that will increase the usefulness of information. Pay-per-page efforts will be changing the ways we handle e-content and raise questions about the roles of libraries in providing such access. New devices are being developed that facilitate the digital e-book, including a device similar to the iPod that will allow for a pay-per-article model and help continue the decline of the paper book, journal, and newspaper. Publishers must follow the trend and create electronic versions of their products, including e-books and audiobooks, that maximize the visibility and usefulness of their content. Vendors are key players in creating a distribution scheme for these new media products that will allow authorized access to users from the library to the airport.

 

Pricing models must change and publishers must figure out new ways to generate revenue from advertising and customers. With free Web sites replacing revenue-generating classified ads in newspapers, it is difficult for newspaper publishers to avoid consolidation of operations and employees. Companies must seek to balance profits and determine the best tactics to include digital content with the printed word. Controversial issues abound as publishers struggle to find a niche in an e-publishing world, such as the recent increase in textbook prices to offset decreasing textbook sales. Copyright protection schemes must be implemented to protect the unauthorized use and duplication of audiobooks and e-books. New markets such as China are being explored by publishing companies to increase sales.

 

The Publishing Trends section highlights trends in the publishing world, and illustrates the promise as well as the pitfalls that face an industry that must change to remain viable in today's electronic world. This section looks at the newest services and products that have already hit the market or will be coming to market in the near future, and includes some unique solutions to going from paper publishing to a digital medium.----Allen DeRidder

 

Government Trends

 

Although this analysis of government trends focuses mainly on government libraries, it is important to note that many of the issues facing these libraries are also affecting other government departments. Overall, it is apparent that that the Federal Government is facing a major long-term fiscal imbalance that is curbing its ability to grow and expand. Other issues include:

 

• The shift from an industrially based to a knowledge-based economy;
• Changes in technology that have transformed how we communicate and do business globally;
• Greater reliance and vulnerability to worldwide market forces and competition; and
• The changing nature of our national security threats (the war on terrorism).

 

Government libraries have been affected by these issues, and have undergone extensive changes during the last few years. With libraries going digital, moving online, and being streamlined, to becoming more physically secure and less financially and professionally so, government librarians seem to be feeling vulnerable in a number of areas. While conducting this literature review, a number of themes came up repeatedly. Many of the trends are described in Government Librarian Interviews.

 

__Cuts in Funding__: Although many government libraries have seen cuts in funding for several decades now, it is evident that since 9/11, with more and more money going to fight the war on terrorism, government libraries are one of the many organizations that have borne the brunt of these cuts. Some military libraries have simply closed their doors in the last few years, and others have faced difficult decisions as to which resources to keep and which ones to let go. There is a perception from some government librarians that many people within in the government, from the decisionmakers down to the users, are unaware of the important role that the library plays in their organization. While this may be endemic to libraries nationwide, some government librarians admit to partial responsibility for this problem, and believe they could do a much better job of marketing themselves and their services to their users. While cuts in funding affect every aspect of the library, where they seem to be felt the most are in collections development. As a result, serious gaps are starting to appear in the historical connectivity of government library resources.

 

__Going Digital__: One result of the technological advances of the last decade is the gradual transformation of printed material into a digital format. While this expedites and facilitates the retrieval, availability, and portability of resources for many users, it has also changed the way the government stores, catalogs, and uses its documents. The Government Printing Office, for example, is facing a re-definition of its role within the Federal Government, and government libraries are quickly needing to become online, instead of real-space repositories, for these vast amounts of digital resources. These resources can be searched, downloaded, filled out, and submitted from a computer with Internet access from anywhere in the world. However, there is a steep learning curve in working with digital access and archiving technologies, and many librarians are having to be specially trained in order to know how to manage this new element of the library. With this new trend, many new resources, programs, and skill-sets will have to be introduced to be able to cope with the complexity of managing such resources.

 

__The A-76 Process, or Government Outsourcing__: It is hard to find an article, blog, or government employee who does not have an opinion about the A-76 process. Many fear and loath it, while others applaud it, although most government librarians are unconvinced that it is a positive evolution in the history of the government or government libraries. A common call for help is often posed in government library circles once they discover that their services will be up for bid, contracted out - or "A-76’d." Many library professionals suddenly find themselves competing for their jobs against people with less experience in libraries, but who are willing to work for less money. And, although the jury is still out on this issue, some argue that there are not any comprehensive studies showing that the outsourcing of government libraries was either saving the government money in the long run, or providing better services to government employees.

 

Another small, but possibly growing, trend is to replace librarians, whose GS series qualifications are defined in the 1410 series, with administrative staff whose qualifications are defined in the more general 301 series. This latter trend can lead to a de-professionalization of the librarian role in leading a library, and possibly cause a decline in the quality of a government library's services (Government Libraries-Replacing 1410s with 301s).

 

The government’s Scorecard, introduced in 2003, which in some ways is driving this trend to streamline government spending, is seen as a progress indicator among many agencies, and consequently makes it likely that the A-76 process will not go away anytime soon. In fact, with increased demands on the government’s budget, it seems likely that this process will become even more entrenched in the future, and something that government as a whole, and government libraries in particular, will have to learn to deal with.

 

There are librarians who lobby for being more proactive in the A-76 process, and effectively outbidding outside bidders by re-organizing the government library from within, (Kapust, FDA) by making them the MEO (Most Efficient Organization), or by forming a hybrid government/contract staff.

 

__Visibility and Access__: Library environments are changing. Gone are the days of dark, musty libraries with limited hours of operation. Users want to be able to use library resources at all hours, and they want it on their own terms. However, what many government users do not realize is that they still need the assistance of a government library or librarian to find what they are looking for. Although they may find a resource that suits their needs (aka Google), they may not have the skills to find the best resources out there. Unless government libraries market themselves more aggressively, most users will remain unaware of this fact, and funding will continue to decrease.

 

In the realm of access and technology, government libraries have made immense progress in the process of digitalization and worldwide access for their clients. For example, State Department employees across the world can now browse most titles at government libraries from an intranet system or the Internet. The post 9/11 increase in government security has had the negative effect of slowing down the process of the acquisition of new technology, as the government attempts to make all of its systems secure before deployment. Each new piece of technology must go through a lengthy testing process to ensure it will not fall victim to the Pandora's Box of electronic dangers that have spread in the last decade (hacking, infiltration, virtual graffiti, identity theft, etc.).

 

Government libraries are slowly going through the "facelift" process that many public and academic libraries are already experiencing. They are being re-modeled to fit the 21st century’s definition of an environment conducive to learning; this means more light, open spaces, access to technology, etc. However, as a result of funding cuts, this is not happening fast enough, and for the most part occurs only as a new government building is built. Since this prospect remains remote for many government agencies, their libraries remain in the space they were provided with as long as 50 years ago.

 

To respond to these trends and challenges, the government must have the institutional capacity to plan more strategically, to identify and react to the problems more expediently, and to focus on achieving results. For a list of these and other trends, please read the section on Government Trends.--Trent Rockwood